The best NFL Draft prop bet revolves around Big Ten players plus other top picks for Thursday

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Key Trend: There have been an average of six Big Ten players selected in the 1st round over the last five drafts.The Pick: Under 8.5 Big Ten players selected in 1st round (+200)I'm one of those nerds who is always excited about the , but there's an extra level Paul Carey Jersey to it tonight. Typically, when we reach this point, there are always surprises, but you have an overall idea of what to expect. That isn't the case this year.While the prevailing theory is Bryce Young will go first overall to Carolina, it's anybody's gue s after that. Some people are convinced the will take a QB, while some think they don't want anybody but Young. Then there's the theory that the are desperate to trade down from No. 3, but nobody wants to trade up. While there are plenty of good players in the cla s, there aren't a lot of prospects considered no-doubters, which means things could go in many different directions.But if there's one thing I'm confident in, it's that we won't see nine players from the Big Ten drafted tonight. Looking at the last 10 drafts, 51 Big Ten players have been chosen in the first round, or 5.1 per season. That has increased in recent years, but even over the last five, there has been an average of six. Tonight I'm confident we'll see at least six. Ohio State's C.J. Stroud, Paris Johnson and Jaxon Smith-Njigba should all go. I also think we'll see Illinois' Devon Witherspoon, Northwestern's Peter Skoronski and Iowa's Lukas Van Ne s taken. After that, I'm not so sure. There's a strong chance Penn State corner Joey Porter Jr. goes, but that brings us to seven. Maryland's Deonte Banks could bring us to eight. Who's the ninth player? Iowa's Sam LaPorta is in the mix, but I'm not convinced we'll see many tight ends go tonight. A few defensive linemen could go, like Michigan's Mazi Smith or Northwestern's Adetomiwa Adebawore, but I wouldn't bet on it.No matter how I break it down, I have a hard Ondrej Pavelec Jersey time seeing more than eight go tonight, so of all the props on the board, this is the one I feel the best about. But, again, tonight could go a million different directions, so no matter what you do, I wouldn't risk a lot of money on any draft prop. . The Pick: Shane McClanahan Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-158) --We've got a bit of a perfect storm here. First, Shane McClanahan is one of the best pitchers in . He has struck out 30.6% of hitters he's faced since last season, which is 37% better than the league average for a starter. His swinging strike rates and contact rates against him are elite, as he has different pitches moving at various speeds. He's a nightmare to face.Tonight he's up against a White Sox team stuck in a long nightmare. The Sox have lost seven straight and struck out in 31% of plate appearances during the losing streak. That's the highest rate of any in that span. Making matters worse, the Sox faced McClanahan last weekend and struck out 10 times Jesper Fast Kids Jersey . McClanahan drew swings and mi ses on 32 of his 88 pitches (36.4%). There's no reason to think tonight's going to go differently.The Pick Mike Gartner Men Jersey : D.J. LeMahieu Over 1.5 Total Bases (+123) --I don't typically like going off individual matchups between a hitter and pitcher to make a bet. The sample sizes are usually so small that you can't reach a definitive conclusion. However, given D.J. LeMahieu's performance against Rangers starter Andrew Heaney in 12 plate appearances -- and how LeMahieu performs against lefties in general -- I see enough to like this bet tonight. In his career against lefties, LeMahieu's wRC+ is at 115 with a wOBA of .356. Compare that to 97 and .329 against righties. His strikeout rate also drops from 15.3% against righties to 13.1% against lefties (he doesn't strike out much against anybody). Against Heaney, LeMahieu has six hits in 12 at-bats with a low swing-and-mi s rate of 9.5%. One of those six hits was a homer. I think there's good extra-base potential in the matchup tonight. .
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